There is an idea that repeats itself across history. The countries that win wars tend to be the ones that can build the most things the fastest. Industrial output, not tactical brilliance, is what decides long conflicts. This sounds obvious in theory, yet it is easy to forget in a world that celebrates advanced technology and leans on the assumption that modern warfare has moved past factories and supply chains.
It has not. If anything, war today is even more industrial than it was in the twentieth century. Precision weapons, autonomous systems, semiconductor-based sensors, and low cost drones all depend on deep, resilient production. War is a competition of attrition, and attrition is a competition of manufacturing.
This matters because the West has allowed its industrial base to weaken, while China has built the largest industrial apparatus the world has ever seen. If the West enters a conflict without correcting this imbalance, the outcome is predictable.
The Proof That Industry Decides Wars
History is not subtle about this. When you look at major conflicts, you see the same pattern. The stronger industrial base wins.
World War II: The Decisive Role of American Output
Everyone learns about D-Day, Midway, and the tank battles in Europe. What gets less attention is the scale of production that made these victories possible.
Here are the numbers that actually decided the war:
• The United States produced 300,000 aircraft. Germany produced 119,000. Japan, 76,000.
• The United States produced nearly 90,000 tanks. Germany produced fewer than 50,000.
• The United States launched more merchant ships in 1943 alone than Japan built during the entire war.
• At peak, the United States was producing one B 24 bomber every 63 minutes at a single plant.
Germany and Japan both fielded formidable militaries. Their tactics were often superior early in the war. Their industrial bases were not. Once the United States mobilized, the conclusion was inevitable.
Industrial output did not just contribute to victory. It made victory mathematically unavoidable.
The Eastern Front: Factories vs Factories
On the other side of the world, the Soviet Union survived and eventually defeated Germany for one reason. It moved its factories east and produced tanks faster than Germany could destroy them.
• Soviet factories produced more than 57,000 T 34 tanks.
• Germany produced roughly half as many tanks of all types combined.
• The Soviet Union produced more artillery, more trucks, more ammunition, and more small arms.
The T 34 was not the best tank in every dimension. But it was good enough and available in overwhelming quantities. Industrial output compensated for tactical setbacks and tremendous human losses.
Quantity eventually beat quality because quantity was sustainable.
The Cold War: The United States Wins Without Fighting
Even the Cold War followed the same logic. The United States could field and maintain a global military presence because it had the deepest industrial and economic base in the world.
The Soviet Union eventually collapsed under the pressure of sustaining a military posture that its economy could not support. Again, industrial capacity dictated the outcome.
Today: Ukraine’s Ammunition Problem
You do not need to look backward for proof. The Ukraine war is a live demonstration.
• Ukraine fires thousands of artillery shells per day when fighting is intense.
• Western stockpiles were drained quickly.
• The United States and Europe struggled to scale shell production fast enough to meet demand.
• Russia, despite many weaknesses, was able to mobilize and increase production at levels that surprised analysts.
The limiting factor in Ukraine is not strategy or morale. It is industrial throughput. The West simply did not maintain the ability to produce the volumes needed for a large, contested battlefield.
If a regional war already stretches Western output, a conflict with China would overwhelm it.
China’s Industrial Dominance Is Not Abstract
It is important to be specific about what China can do.
• China produces more steel than the United States, Europe, India, and Japan combined.
• China produces almost half of the ships built worldwide each year.
• China produces more machine tools than any other country.
• China has the world’s largest electronics manufacturing base.
• China produces thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles annually.
• China produces over 70 percent of the world’s drones.
These are not just economic statistics. These are military statistics.
If China loses a destroyer, it can replace it faster.
If China consumes thousands of drones, it can rebuild them faster.
If China fires hundreds of missiles, it can replenish its stock faster.
Once you accept that modern warfare is a sustained contest of replacement and scale, China’s industrial advantage becomes strategically defining.
Industrial Capacity Is a Form of Deterrence
Weapons matter. Training matters. Alliances matter. But none of them matter for long if you cannot replace what you lose.
A country that can only fight a short war cannot deter a long one.
Right now, the United States and Europe do not have the capacity to sustain months of high intensity conflict against a peer adversary. China does. This creates an imbalance that increases the chances of miscalculation.
Deterrence depends on convincing your adversary that you can outproduce them. Without that, you are asking them to trust your strategy more than their own factories.
What the West Must Do
Reindustrialization is not nostalgia. It is necessity.
The West needs:
• More shipyards
• More munitions plants
• More foundries and machine shops
• More domestic semiconductor and electronics manufacturing
• More workers trained in machining, welding, and advanced manufacturing
• More capacity to surge output quickly
This is not optional. It is the prerequisite for any military strategy that extends beyond a few weeks.
The Hard Truth
Technology advances. Tools change. But the underlying reality is stubborn. Wars are won by the side that can build the most things and replace them the fastest. The West once understood this. China never forgot it.
If the United States and Europe want to preserve peace, they need to match China where it matters most: in the factories.
Because the uncomfortable truth is that industrial strength is not just a factor in war. It is what decides war. The record of history leaves no ambiguity on that point.
If the West wants a future where conflict is avoided, it must rebuild the capacity that makes deterrence credible. And that begins with production.
George Payne 